A machine that
administers sedatives recently began treating patients at a Seattle
hospital. At a Silicon Valley hotel, a bellhop robot delivers items to
people’s rooms.Last spring, a software algorithm wrote a breaking news
article about an earthquake that The LosAngeles Times published. Although
fears that technology will displace jobs are at least as old as the
Luddites, there are signs that this time may really be different. The
technological breakthroughs of recent years – allowing machines to mimic
the human mind – are enabling machines to do knowledge jobs and service
jobs, in addition to factory and clerical work. And
over the same 15-year period that digital technology has inserted
itself into nearly every aspect of life, the job market has fallen into a
long malaise. Even with the economy’s recent improvement, the share of
working-age adults who are working is substantially lower than adecade
ago – and lower than any point in the 1990s. Economists
long argued that, just as buggy-makers gave way to car factories,
technology would create as many jobs as it destroyed. Now many are not
so sure. Lawrence
H. Summers, the former Treasury secretary, recently said that he no
longer believed that automation would always create new jobs. “This
isn’t some hypothetical future possibility,” he said. “This is something
that’s emerging before us right now.” Erik Brynjolfsson, an economist at M.I.T., said, “This is the biggest challenge of our society for then ext decade.” Mr.
Brynjolfsson and other experts believe that society has a chance to
meet the challenge in ways that will allow technology to be mostly a
positive force. In addition to making some jobs obsolete,new
technologies have also long complemented people’s skills and enabled
them to be more productive – as the Internet and word processing have
for office workers or robotic surgery has for surgeons. More
productive workers, in turn, earn more money and produce goods and
services that improve lives. “It is literally the story of the economic
development of the world over the last 200 years,”said Marc Andreessen, a
venture capitalist and an inventor of the web browser. “Just as most of
us today have jobs that weren’t even invented 100 years ago, the same
will be true 100 years from now.” Yet
there is deep uncertainty about how the pattern will play out now, as
two trends are interacting. Artificial intelligence has become vastly
more sophisticated in a short time, with machines now able to learn, not
just follow programmed instructions, and to respond to human language
and movement. |